Maths and finals permutations

[David Votoupal]

The five teams who have already secured finals participation are:
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners
Adelaide United
Gold Coast United
Melbourne Victory

The two teams who can't make it are:
Perth Glory
North Queensland Fury

Technically the Roar need a point to win the premier's plate. But that's as good as secured since Brisbane Roar play North Queensland Fury. In fact, to win the championship, the Roar could take their run to 28 games.

And so, 2nd place. Adelaide United have:
Gold Coast United (away)
Wellington Phoenix (home)
Melbourne Victory (home)
All 3 of these games are winnable.

Central Coast Mariners have:
Melbourne Heart (away)
Gold Coast United (away)
Newcastle Jets (home)
The Mariners have a good away record so should feel confident. No sign of customary fade-outs.

Gold Coast United face Adelaide United, Mariners and Roar. Melbourne Victory can't finish higher than 4th unless a big change in GD.

6th place is the last remaining one to be decided. Wellington Phoenix currently occupy that place, but their inability to win on the road means they could well lose that and would need a big win over the Fury at home to stay there. Melbourne Heart have the Mariners and Sydney FC left, both at home. The Jets have 4 games left but their current form does not bode well.

Sydney on the other hand have yet to lose in 2011, and if they'd beaten MV and CCM they'd be up there. It's not lost for them, they've got winnable games against Wellington and Newcastle, and then travel to Melbourne Heart.

And so to the finals. 2nd place means a double chance and a week off, anything from 3rd to 6th means one-off games all the way. If United finish 3rd, they would need 2 home finals and an away preliminary final, whereas 2nd will guarantee a home preliminary final should they fail to knock off Brisbane.